Unblocking inertia: US-Russian nuclear arms control and missile defenses

The United States and Russia, in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine, seem to have ditched entirely the “reset” in their political relations. Despite this odor of Cold War redux, there remain the opportunities and necessities for renewed attention to strategic nuclear arms control as between the two governments. US and NATO missile defenses as planned for European deployment figure into this equation, although in somewhat unpredictable ways, given technological uncertainties in existing and foreseeable defenses, as well as the possibility of improved delivery systems for offensive conventional or nuclear weapons.     

《孙子兵法》谋略思想对武警部队执勤、处突的启示

中国人民武装警察部队（以下简称武警部队）作为我国的一支重要武装力量，担负国家赋予的安全保卫和维护社会稳定任务。在当前日益复杂的斗争形势中，完成执勤、处突任务不仅要具备过硬的军事技能，而且也要善于运用谋略。《孙子兵法》中所蕴涵的“道义”、“庙算”、“知彼知己，百战不殆”等谋略思想，对武警部队执勤、处突具有很强的借鉴意义。     

Why provoke? the Sino-US competition in East Asia and North Korea’s strategic choice

This article seeks to make sense of North Korean provocations in light of the Sino-US strategic competition in post-Cold War East Asia, where such variables as China’s rise, US’s pivot to Asia, and growing Sino-ROK economic ties are driving the strategic choices of major states in the region. The article examines the main motivations behind Pyongyang’s provocations since the end of the Cold War, discusses their implications for the Sino-US strategic competition in East Asia, and offers predictions about the future of North Korean provocations. The central thesis of the article is that Pyongyang has exploited the Sino-US strategic competition in East Asia for its regime survival. By raising North Korea’s strategic value to China, the intensifying Sino-US competition allows Pyongyang to continue provocations, regardless of Beijing’s explicit opposition.     

新形势下加强防化装备定型工作的几点思考

分析了防化装备定型工作面临的形势和任务,提出了防化装备定型工作需要把握的5个原则,探讨了破解防化装备定型工作重点、难点问题的措施和办法。     

Selling to strategic and loss‐averse consumers: Stocking,procurement, and product design policies

Motivated by the presence of loss‐averse decision making behavior in practice, this article considers a supply chain consisting of a firm and strategic consumers who possess an S‐shaped loss‐averse utility function. In the model, consumers decide the purchase timing and the firm chooses the inventory level. We find that the loss‐averse consumers' strategic purchasing behavior is determined by their perceived gain and loss from strategic purchase delay, and the given rationing risk. Thus, the firm that is cognizant of this property tailors its inventory stocking policy based on the consumers' loss‐averse behavior such as their perceived values of gain and loss, and their sensitivity to them. We also demonstrate that the firm's equilibrium inventory stocking policy reflects both the economic logic of the traditional newsvendor inventory model, and the loss‐averse behavior of consumers. The equilibrium order quantity is significantly different from those derived from models that assume that the consumers are risk neutral and homogeneous in their valuations. We show that the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior tends to keep an unnecessarily high inventory level that leads to excessive leftovers. Our numerical experiments further reveal that in some extreme cases the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior generates almost 92% more leftovers than the firm that possesses consumers’ loss‐aversion information and takes it into account when making managerial decisions. To mitigate the consumer's forward‐looking behavior, we propose the adoption of the practice of agile supply chain management, which possesses the following attributes: (i) procuring inventory after observing real‐time demand information, (ii) enhanced design (which maintains the current production mix but improves the product performance to a higher level), and (iii) customized design (which maintains the current performance level but increases the variety of the current production line to meet consumers’ specific demands). We show that such a practice can induce the consumer to make early purchases by increasing their rationing risk, increasing the product value, or diversifying the product line. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 435–453, 2015     

US strategic preferences in the early twenty-first century

This article investigates how US national security planners have envisioned the emerging strategic environment during the early twenty-first century and evaluates how their perceptions of this strategic environment have changed during these years. This conceptual evolution can be seen in how defense planners define threats, identify defense priorities, and design security strategies. Five key strategic planning documents serve as the basis for this analysis and illustrate significant shifts in how the US government has envisioned its own security requirements as well as the context within which its strategic vision will need to be realized. These planning documents are: (1) Joint Vision 2020, (2) the Bush Administration's 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States, (3) the Obama Administration's 2010 National Security Strategy, (4) US Strategic Defense Guidance entitled Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21^st Century Defense, and (5) the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Joint Force 2020.     

战略导弹惯性/星光复合制导技术研究

以Kalman滤波为基础,研究了惯性/星光复合制导系统的原理和特点,并对系统进行了计算机仿真。通过将惯导系统和星敏感器所测得的战略导弹相关姿态信息进行数据融合,估计出复合制导系统的误差状态量,进而修正惯导系统的位置、速度和姿态角误差。仿真结果表明,采用惯性/星光复合制导可以有效地提高战略导弹的姿态精度。     

经济视角下的《骆驼祥子》

老舍在《骆驼祥子》中采用经济视角,与自身的生活经历和时代背景有关。通过在作品中运用经济视角探究人的解放、展开社会批判、进行伦理剖析,比较客观地还原了生活的本真和人生的本相,让读者透视了经济生活表象下蕴含的精神内涵。     

职业化视域下的高校辅导员队伍建设研究

高校辅导员是开展大学生思想政治教育的骨干力量,其存在的本身就是为了促进大学生的健康成长,对大学生而言,高校辅导员就是他们专业化学习之外的重要导师、榜样和指引。然而,由于种种原因,使得高校辅导员偏离了其队伍设置的本质目标。新时期,要实现辅导员的思想政治教育者的职能,最重要而可靠的途径就是实现高校辅导员的职业化,这也是目前高等教育改革的内在要求,努力探寻贴合实际且具有可操作性的高校辅导员职业化发展路径有着重要的现实意义。     

United Nations Security Council reform and the dilemmas of African continental integration

This article analyses the disunity among African states in terms of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform, and attributes it to the contest between South Africa and Nigeria. These two countries have been locked in a hegemonic contest for continental domination. To this end, the article notes that African unity, not in terms of protocol but on the basis of principles and cooperation, is sacrosanct in order for the African Union to make a significant contribution to the reform of the UNSC. It is asserted that the contest between South Africa and Nigeria has been symbolised by the continental leadership aspirations of the heads of state of both countries, and recommends that it be tamed through forging diplomatic and strategic partnerships between the ruling parties of these two countries. The influence of external actors on the African countries, particularly that of France, is underscored as a contributing factor in stalling the debate on the UNSC reform. It recommends that South Africa use its strategic partnership within the association of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), particularly Russia and China as permanent members of the UNSC, to influence the realisation of the reform debate.